Global warming or Ice Age

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resigned

Global warming or Ice Age

Postby resigned » 2009 Jan 20 07:52

I have been reading alot about global warming vrs an Ice Age. I found this article (which has been one of many) about global warming vrs having an Ice Age. It seems the scientists are in disagreement on this issue. It is really confusing on what to believe. Right now I tend to believe we are coming to an Ice Age. At least the temps at our house have been unusally low. We have had -4 for a couple of mornings and I don't remember having temps that low for awhile. I do know that the last ice age called the Little Ice Age was ending when America was involved in the Revolutionary War. Are we due for another?


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Wise One
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Wise One » 2009 Jan 20 13:35

The only thing more certain than an anthropogenic basis for global climate change, is the appearance of "skeptic" headlines every time it gets a little cold someplace on the planet, as if that were evidence against secular changes that are global in scope.

It's like saying, "My pimple went away, so that proves I don't have lung cancer after all. My alarmist doctor only gave me that diagnosis so I'd spend more money with him."

There is so much wrong with the cited references.

  • The Tomlinson piece is based entirely on crazy coot James Inhofe's assertion in this minority report. I trust hardly a word that passes through Inhofe's lips, and very few others do either. For example, his count of 650 is debunked here as consisting mainly of persons with no climate science background whatever, or outright lies about people who were shocked to find their names on his list and asked to be removed.
  • This, and your second reference, are mostly Belief better characterized as wishful thinking, and not Analysis characterized by the hard work of scientists who know the field and what they are doing. There is willful ignorance here, deliberate obfuscation.
    One can't refute a short term, man-induced change with a long term, geological/astronomical change. There is simply no relation between the two phenomena, each proceeding independently of the other, on enormously different time scales. Man-induced climate change occurs on a time scale of a hundred years or so, whereas glaciation/ice-ages occur on a time scale of tens of thousands of years or so.
    It's like saying,
:hat: "It's stupid to air-condition in July, because winter will only have us freezing for months anyway!" :hat:
"If your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like Donald Trump."

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Uji
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Uji » 2009 Jan 21 10:05

There's a lot of confusion out there about what constitutes a "scientific" opinion. If someone publishes an article about some technical topic, that opinion is not "scientific" simply because the author has a PhD. A opinion published in the NYT is not scientific because the author won a Nobel prize.

Scientific views must be published in juried journals -- journals that are reviewed for some minimal level of technical expertise and procedural regularity by other scientists. These juried journals are the scientific playing field. In these journals is where the contest between competing theories and the like are played out. Scientific views (as opposed to the views of individual scientists) arise from a consensus that arises on this playing field. An individual scientist might disagree with the consensus view, but the disagreement has no status on the scientific playing field unless it is presented there.

Some researcher published a study a few years ago -- 2005, I think -- that reviewed every scientific article (that is, article from juried journals) that dealt with global climate change. Only half offered an opinion about the source of that change; the others dealt merely with technical issues about weather modeling and the like. Of those that offered an opinion, every one (100%) considered the current rapid change a product of human activity; not one (nada, 0%) considered it to be anything BUT human caused.

I am not a scientist -- at least nobody's ever accused me of being one. :upset: So some of you that are, might want to qualify my assertions here.

And Beck: :pat: All WiseOne is doing here is questioning your sources. For me, that's how I find better ones.

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Coondog
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Coondog » 2009 Jan 21 13:37

I recommend a book called The Coming Global Superstorm. The movie Day After Tomorrow was based on it.

It has a lot to do with changes in ocean currents, culmunating in the kind of instant freeze (supposedly) that caught Wooly Mammoths chewing spring flowers completely unawares. I don't know how solid the science is, but it's enough to support the addage, "Don't buy any unripe bananas!" Melting Ice Caps.......Giant Asteroids.......Earthquakes.....Volcanos.....Vanishing Ozone.......makes one wonder if maybe the world wasn't created with the lasting durability of a Chrysler Product.

Coondog :help2:

I've been living in the End Times for so long, it's beginning to look like the beginning!

resigned

Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby resigned » 2009 Jan 21 19:51

Thanks Coondog for the recommendation of book reading. I will try the library to see if they have it. This global warming has been debated quite a bit and has me questioning whether it is true or not as there are quite a few scientists who disagree with global warming

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

I know from attending college that we studied how the earth goes through climate cycles. I know from visiting Yellowstone, that it was created by a volcano, which erupted thousands of years ago and is way overdue to erupt again. I do believe that humans have an impact on our environment, but just can't swallow Al Gores ideas on global warming. I probably could swallow them better if he didn't have a very large house lit up a majority of time or flies on a jet, which uses loads of gas and must impact on the environment. What I am saying is that I can believe if I see the messenger living out what he is preaching.

Like you I believe that there are a lot of variables that impact on our country and I also wonder about having an ice age. I have seen several documentaries on the history channel regarding same. Hey if what I read or watch doesn't agree with some of those elitists’ views then gee whiz, just consider me one of the bohemians.

I stayed off this forum for a while, because I thought my postings did not sound as well thought out or written. But after a lot of thinking decided that what do I have to lose. I do learn quite a bit from doing research and really enjoy some of the postings. I appreciate your and UJI’s attempts to help me in my continuing struggle to improve my mental abilities.

Come to think about it, just ten years ago, I was in a rehab center, could barely talk and when I did, I stuttered terrible, had problems dressing, etc. I still have some minor mental deficits but believe I have come a long way and while I may not express myself as eloquently as some or read the kind of articles that some deem appropriate well then just consider me a poor misguided soul. But I have to say I am a happy poor misguided soul because I am still alive, and God has blessed me tremendously, and the brain can re-learn a lot of things I thought it couldn’t.

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Coondog
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Coondog » 2009 Jan 22 13:59

If Al Gore bought nine dollars worth of lumber and built himself a shack by the edge of Walden Pond, it's unlikely his credibility would be enhanced in any way. The guy travels all over the world....in a jet. At any one point in time, there are about 5,000 jets in the air over the US alone. While Gore's jet may contribute in some minute way to the collective accumulation of jet fuel exhaust, expediency requires he not travel by ox cart, lest his message arrive too late to deliver mankind from extinction. As for his house......well, an ego that big needs space to roam around in.

From where I sit (under the porch) it would seem that existence relies on a precarious balance. Temperature fluctuations of a few degrees can be observed, even without relying on Gore's expertise, to have had an effect on the ice caps at both poles. Who hasn't seen dramatic footage of great chunks of Antarctica breaking off and falling into the sea? This has a marked impact on water temperature with the potential of affecting, even reversing, the flow of ocean currents which, along with the moon and movements by giant leviathans deep below the surface of the sea, affect weather patterns. Then you got all the other geologic events generally viewed by humans as natural disasters which influence heat, light, tides and lottery numbers in Haiti. The earth spins on an axis in an orbit about the sun in an amazingly precise fashion. The sun rests within one of countless galaxies in a reportedly expanding universe. Everything is connected.
One small slip and it all goes kaflooey! :bricks:

As these matters are too complex for us to address in any sane manner on a daily basis, we can be thankful that we have Al Gore to address them for us!

Coondog

And, yes, it's too :curse: cold!

resigned

Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby resigned » 2009 Jan 22 14:33

Al Gore was just an aside and he sure doesn't address anything for me, thank you. :wink2:

If Yellowstone goes up then we can all say goodby. And we all know its way overdue. Wonder if I should start digging a bunker here. :surprised:

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Juggler
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Juggler » 2009 Jan 25 12:44

Image

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nudgewink
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These Lives Hang in the Balance

Postby nudgewink » 2009 Dec 16 09:03

Hundreds gather to protest global warming.

It doesn't get more serious than this. The expressions of terror are, well, terrifying.

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Uji
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Uji » 2009 Dec 17 09:29

Then, on the other hand, look at the letter in this week's Gazette. It's not only not get warmer, it's actually getting colder! Why? Apparently because last week was real cold. :suicide:

Humanity is clearly a blight on this plant, and Gaia has already started the treatment that will rid Her of the disease. I can't say I'm too upset about it, either.

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Sam
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Sam » 2009 Dec 19 10:02

Gotta say folks if this is global warming then I am sure happy as I only have almost 20 inches of snow to plow. Gotta run, just took a break from plowing to check on you folks. How much snow have others gotten? Just curious. Holly Crapola what a mess.
Only in America could the people who believe in balancing the budget and sticking by the country's Constitution be thought of as
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Uji
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Uji » 2009 Dec 19 13:53

We got a good two feet on the ground up her in upper Rockbridge. We've had a local guy run his tractor over the road with a pull-behind spreader but even with that my four-wheel-drive truck can't make it. Don't know when (if?) we'll be plowed out. Might have to wait for it...

Maybe it's the Federal Reserve... They seem to be responsible for everything from sun spots to potato blight -- why not my unplowed road? :craz:

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Sam
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Sam » 2009 Dec 30 06:27

We still have several inches of snow. Where is that global warming, I could use some of it. Dang it, got a bad cold from being out in all that wet and cold stuff. Anyone notice the days are getting longer. Thats a good sign.
Only in America could the people who believe in balancing the budget and sticking by the country's Constitution be thought of as
"extremists

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Uji
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Re: Global weirding, not warming

Postby Uji » 2009 Dec 31 12:55

Supposed to get rain today. Got another 2 inches of snow on the ground instead. Don't think "glob :toothy: al warming", think "global weirding."

Kazooty

Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Kazooty » 2010 Jan 02 15:05

Good discussion, but I'm not convinced that we should take the alarmist view that Al Gore and his minions portend as I believe that his is a selfish ploy to broker pollution credits and make millions. In fact, I'm more in agreement with Dr. Terence Joyce of the Woods Hole Oceanagraphic Institute who theorizes that the world may be due for another "little ice age" as experienced from approximately 1100to 1850 in Europe.

We humans have very short memories when it comes to the effects of external stimula on our existence, sort of like the little red hen story. Perhaps we should wait and see how things turn out. After all, I remember that when I was in grade school in the 1950s, there were stipulations by the scientific community regarding the melting of the polar ice caps and the submerging of Florida. All those scientists are dead now and Florida has yet to be submerged ( too bad too) so what does it matter?

Try reading this posting by Dr. Joyce : http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10046

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Uji
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Uji » 2010 Jan 02 15:43

Good point, Gazooty. "Global Warming" -- the potential climate change brought on by an over-abundance of green-house gasses -- will more likely be any other or a combination of effects rather than "warming." That's why a friend of mine has taken to calling it "global wierding."

As to whether we -- humans -- caused it: Well, the vast majority of scientists and national institutes of science recognize that it is. I'm not sure where Joyce falls on that -- those his scenario (however caused) is a sobering one.

But, Gazooty, if you find the global-warmers dire predictions "alarmist," what do you make of how Joyce ends his talk?

Researchers always tell you that more research funding is needed, and we are not any different. Our main message is not just that, however. It is that global climate is moving in a direction that makes abrupt climate change more probable, that these dynamics lie beyond the capability of many of the models used in IPCC reports, and the consequences of ignoring this may be large. For those of us living around the edge of the N. Atlantic Ocean, we may be planning for climate scenarios of global warming that are opposite to what might actually occur.


Sound pretty dire to me. What a bummer, huh, if the minor efforts Copenhagen manages turn out to be working in the wrong direction! And there's the rub: nobody knows what's gonna happen, just that it's likely something will -- and probably dramatically.

Sounds like a good case for doing nothing! Or, if you don't know what to do, are you better off doing something -- working with your best guess? Whadaya think?

Ol' Gaia's got a few tricks up her sleeve I'll wager... :sail: :toothy: :angry4: :tongfreez: :hiding2:

Kazooty

Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Kazooty » 2010 Jan 02 17:43

Uji - there's so much that we don't know. But as for Copenhagen, just follow the money. Developing nations as well as China and India are unwilling to accept responsibility for the tons of gases and pollutants released into the atmosphere, but are willing to buy "credits" so that they can dump even more. That is unacceptable. Let's consider other factors beyond greenhouse gases. How about the draining of wetlands, clear-cutting rain forests, and even seeding clouds so that it doesn't snow on Moscow? You can recycle all the aluminum cans you want, but it won't clear the skies. Ever been to Okinawa? The Japanese don't recycle! All of their trash is collected and incinerated. The ash is dumped in the ocean. Give me a break!!

No, I believe that we are but a small speck in the universe and that cosmic factors play a significant part on global climate. If we prepare for the flooding of low areas due to the assumption of melting glaciers and the the opposite happens, then what? If another "little ice age" occurs - similar to the last one - considering the world's population, it could be cataclismic.

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Sam
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Sam » 2010 Jan 02 20:36

To my reckoning if Yellowstone blows we won't have to worry about much of anything.
Only in America could the people who believe in balancing the budget and sticking by the country's Constitution be thought of as
"extremists

Kazooty

Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Kazooty » 2010 Jan 04 12:04

Uji, the idea of doing nothing political is probably sound, because the buying and selling of pollution credits does little to reduce greenhouse gases in the short haul. Theoretically, if the cost for the credits goes up and up, the polluting countries will change. This is a simplistic politicians' solution and is laughable.

the USA has to reduce emissions by converting to alternative power generation such as nuclear, solar and wind. Our own businesses and residences must be more energy efficient, and we must change transportation modes from truck and car to rail. All that said, however and I repeat myself, just follow the money. There is no incentive for power companies to promote energy reduction, because they'll collect less revenue. less revenue meas less shareholder value of their stock, ergo less investors. Dominion power has just surcharged it's subscribers for 2 new power plants which are neither solar nor nuclear. Go figure.

But why must the US lead the charge at the expense of it's citizens (Cap and Tax) when China and India can buy "credits"?

I spoke before of "the little ice age". Prior to that was a period called "medieval warming". Norse settlers were cultivating grapes and wheat on Greenland in the 10th century. There was no smokestacks, no industrialization of the modern world, so what was the basis for the "global warming" then? Politicians say "Oh, that was just climate change". (HUH?) BTW the farms and vineyards were all but abandoned by the12th century because of the spread of the central glacier.

Doing nothing is not an option, but we can do something and it doesn't cost anything. If world governments were willing to legislate clean air with an aggressive goal, greenhouse emissions could be all but eliminated. Thoughts?

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Uji
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Re: Global warming or Ice Age

Postby Uji » 2010 Jan 04 12:27

Kazooty wrote:...the USA has to reduce emissions by converting to alternative power generation such as nuclear, solar and wind. Our own businesses and residences must be more energy efficient, and we must change transportation modes from truck and car to rail. All that said, however and I repeat myself, just follow the money. There is no incentive for power companies to promote energy reduction, because they'll collect less revenue. less revenue meas less shareholder value of their stock, ergo less investors. Dominion power has just surcharged it's subscribers for 2 new power plants which are neither solar nor nuclear. Go figure.
If world governments were willing to legislate clean air with an aggressive goal, greenhouse emissions could be all but eliminated. Thoughts?

Great points. We've known since the '70s that conservation -- insulation retrofits, more efficient appliances, etc. -- would save maybe 40% of our energy use. So why are we talking about carbon credits and the like? Because nobody would have to actually do anything -- much less change their life style.

I don't share you concern about the US having to do too much, though. IWe reap the most benefits from the status quo so why shouldn't we pay the price? Shoot we've got two wars and a gaggle of civilization threatening crises and still, no one is willing to pay even as much taxes as they payed forty years ago to finance any of it. The US is slipping into Third-Worldom yet no one things they owe "the government" anything. Makes no sense to me... And then they complain about the deficit... :rolleyes: